RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews
RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg predictions for Saturday afternoon’s Bundesliga action.
RB Leipzig VS SC Freiburg Predictions
Full Time: 4 - 0
Over/Under Tip: Over 2.5 win
Reason For RB Leipzig VS SC Freiburg Betting Tips
The international break proved aptly timed for RB Leipzig following their three match win-less run (D1 L2). Since the two week hiatus, the revitalised Red Bulls have taken three consecutive wins against Darmstadt 98 (4-0 at home), Bayer Leverkusen (1-0 at home) and Mainz 05 (3-2 away), which has put them firmly back on track for Champions League qualification – the Red Bulls stand 15 points within the top four with just six matches remaining.
Freiburg followed up their surprising 1-0 win on the road to Wolfsburg with another 1-0 win at home to Mainz last weekend. Standing on 41 points, the South Germans have all but mathematically guaranteed themselves another season in the German top flight and, in fact, their current position (6th placed in the Bundesliga) is not far off that of their season four years ago, when the South Germans finished fifth and qualified for the Europa League. Freiburg are, however, just one point within the top six and Christian Streich’s side will have a hard time taking away a positive result from the Red Bull Arena on Saturday – Leizpig hold the 2nd best home record in the Bundesliga (W11 D1 L2).
RB Leipzig are favourites here at 4/9 with bet365. However, given that such a short price is too unappealing to back outright (but definitely worth adding to an accumulator), we feel that “over 2.5 goals” at 7/10 is the best value bet for the following reasons: first and foremost, RB Leipzig’s matches rarely tend to be dull affairs. Not only have over 2.5 goals been scored in 64% of RB Leipzig’s home matches, but nine of their twelve (75%) Bundesliga matches in 2017 (some won, some lost) have also seen three goals or more. Combine this with Freiburg’s own statistics – 71% of the South Germans matches on the road have seen over 2.5 goals scored – and this already seems lined up to be a profitable endeavor.
While playing at home, goals for Leipzig shouldn’t be a problem. Leipzig have scored at least one goal in 86% of their home matches and the Red Bulls also boast the Bundesliga’s 4th top scorer, Timo Werner (15 goals). With a single goal in six of his last ten Bundesliga outings, he’d be a decent shout to score anytime at 4/5 with bet365. Meanwhile, there shouldn’t be any doubt surrounding the visitors abilities, even at the more tricky venues – Freiburg have been hugely consistent on the road, scoring at least one goal in 11 of their most recent 12 away outings.
Regarding a correct score bet, while we expect the visitors to get themselves a goal – Freiburg have scored at least one goal in 86% of matches on the road – we ultimately expect the rejuvenated Leizpig to come out ahead here. Leipzig are extremely strong at home and Freiburg’s struggle on the road has come from conceding too many goals, so we expect the Red Bulls to push past their 2 goals scored per match average. Hence, RB Leipzig to win 3-1 at 10/1 with bet365 (a result that has landed in 21% of Leipzig’s home matches this season) seems too much value to pass.