SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

SC Freiburg

2017-04-23
14:30
Schwarzwald-Stadion

VS

Bayer Leverkusen

SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen predictions for Sunday’s early Bundesliga kick-off.

SC Freiburg VS Bayer Leverkusen Predictions

Full Time: 2 - 1

Handicap Tip: SC Freiburg 0
win

Reason For SC Freiburg VS Bayer Leverkusen Betting Tips

Standing on 41 points, Freiburg have all but mathematically guaranteed themselves another season in the German top flight. In fact, their current position (6th placed in the Bundesliga) is not far off that of their Bundesliga campaign four years ago, when the South Germans finished fifth and qualified for the Europa League. Freiburg’s 4-0 defeat away to 2nd-placed RB Leipzig last weekend was to be expected and with other results going their way, Christian Streich’s men still find themselves one point within the top six.

Bayer Leverkusen’s managerial change of Roger Schmidt for interim coach Tayfun Korkut hasn’t provided the spark many would have hoped. A 10-man Leverkusen defended a 0-0 draw to the bitter end at home to Bayern Munich last weekend, meaning that Leverkusen have still taken just one win in seven across all competitions under Korkut (W1 D4 L2). Repeating last season’s Champions League qualification is now out of the question and if they fail to get a result on Sunday, Europa League could be off the cards for them too.

Leverkusen are the favourites here at 23/20 with bet365, but we feel that the hosts represent the value here. Hence, backing Freiburg “draw no bet” at 6/4 is the best option for the following reasons: as a newly promoted side for the 2016/2017 Bundesliga season, Freiburg’s 57% win rate at the Schwarzwald Stadion is an impressive feat, especially when noting that the South German’s are consistently making the most of their “favourable” fixtures – Freiburg’s home defeats have primarily been against sides higher in the league (Bayern Munich, Dortmund, Leipzig etc.), while their home wins have been against sides positioned lower. Sunday’s match at home to Leverkusen provides them yet another opportunity to capitalise on this trend. Not only are Leverkusen below Freiburg in the Bundesliga, but Leverkusen are hugely out of form, recording just one win over their last ten competitive outings across all competitions (W1 D4 L5). Leverkusen have also lost four of their last six Bundesliga away days (67%).

Regarding a correct score bet, despite Leverkusen’s struggles on the road, we don’t see the hosts running away with this one. Seven of Freiburg’s eight home wins have been by just one goal (88%), while Leverkusen have scored at least one goal in 79% of their matches on the road. Leverkusen have, however, lost 2-1 in 29% of their Bundesliga away outings and, as such, there’s huge value to be had backing another here at 17/2 with bet365.

Head To Head

Leverkusen drew 1-1 at home to Freiburg when the two sides met earlier this season. Of the 18 matches at home to Leverkusen, Freiburg have won 4, drawn 6 and lost 8.

SC Freiburg VS Bayer Leverkusen Stats

Freiburg have won 57% of their matches at home, while Leverkusen have lost 57% of their matches on the road. Both teams have scored in 57% of Freiburg's home matches and in 64$ of Leverkusen's away matches. Leverkusen have lost 2-1 in 29% of their away matches.

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