Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Bayern Munich vs Dortmund Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Bayern Munich

2017-04-26
19:45
Allianz Arena

VS

Dortmund

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund predictions for Wednesday’s DFB Pokal (German Cup) semi final.

Bayern Munich VS Dortmund Predictions

Full Time: 2 - 3

Handicap Tip: Bayern Munich -1
lose

Reason For Bayern Munich VS Dortmund Betting Tips

Following their knock-out of the Champions League by Real Madrid, Bayern Munich were complacent in their return to league football against Mainz 05 last weekend. The Bavarians’ lack of concentration in the opening minutes alongside the penalty decision against them were more than enough for the 05ers to earn themselves a point in a 2-2 draw at the Allianz Arena. Carlo Ancelloti’s side still have a comfortable lead atop the Bundesliga, however, so all efforts should be in getting them to their regular spot in the final of the DFB Pokal – Bayern Munich have featured in four of the last five DFB Pokal finals.

Thomas Tuchel’s Borussia Dortmund have had a tough few weeks. Back to back Bundesliga wins (a tight 3-2 win on the road to Borussia M’gladbach and a comfortable 3-1 win at home to Eintracht Frankfurt) have been “consolations” between a sandwich of three defeats (a 4-1 defeat on the road to Bayern Munich and defeats in both legs of the Champions League quarter finals against Monaco) and a shocking attack on the BVB team bus. Dortmund’s consequential knock-out from the Champions League came as no surprise – Tuchel’s side were always going to have a hard time recovering following this disruption – so the BVB are also likely to come out firing for their only remaining chance at silverware.

Bayern Munich are the favourites here at 4/7 with bet365, and we feel that backing the hosts is the way to go here. However, Bayern Munich “-1.00 Asian Handicap” at 1/1 should prove to be a better value bet for the following reasons: first and foremost, Bayern Munich are unbelievably hard to hold off at the Allianz Arena, as Dortmund experienced in their deflating 4-1 defeat there just a few weeks back. Notably, Bayern have won 78% of their home matches across all competitions since the start of the season (W18 D4 L1), fifteen of which (65%) have been wins by two goals or more. Meanwhile, though Dortmund have put in some decent performances since the turn of the new year, the best of these have consistently been at home, not on the road. Dortmund have been hugely inconsistent when not on their own turf, winning just three of their last eleven Bundesliga away matches (W3 D4 L4), and the chance that their recent trashing at the Allianz Arena affects them mentally on a “derby” cup tie seems likely.

Whether or not Bayern Munich can keep another clean sheet at home is the only concern here. Given that both teams have scored in 81% of Borussia Dortmund’s away matches and that the BVB boast the Bundesliga’s top scorer, Pierre-Emerick Aubemayang (27 goals), goals at both ends wouldn’t be out of the question. Aubemeyang has scored at least one goal in all but one of his last nine Bundesliga outings (two braces and six singles = 10 goals total), so he’d be the BVB’s best shout to score anytime (odds to follow with bet365). Meanwhile, Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski also finds himself very much in form. He’s scored 26 goals so far this season and at least a brace (two braces and two hat-tricks) in all but one of his last five Bundesliga outings at the Allianz Arena. He’d also be a decent shout to add to an anytime goalscorer accumulator (odds to follow).

Regarding a correct score bet, with the “travel-sick” Dortmund struggling against Bayern just a few weeks back, it’s reasonable to see the same happening again on Wednesday. Bayern are odds on to return to their usual consistency, so the Bavarians should have another decent shot at bettering Dortmund’s 1.5 goals conceded per match average on the road. As such, a 3-1 Bayern Munich win at 11/1 with bet365 offers some really decent value here.

Head To Head

Bayern Munich won 4-1 at home to Borussia Dortmund just a few weeks back. Of the 52 matches at home to Borussia Dortmund, Bayern have won 32, drawn 10 and lost just 10.

Bayern Munich VS Dortmund Stats

Bayern Munich have won 18 of their 23 matches at home across all competitions this season, scoring an average of 3.3 goals per match over this period. Dortmund have lost five of their last nine on the road across all competitions (W3 D1 L5).

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