FC Koln vs SV Werder Bremen Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

FC Koln vs SV Werder Bremen Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

FC Koln

2017-05-05
19:30
RheinEnergieStadion

VS

SV Werder Bremen

Cologne vs Werder Bremen predictions for Friday evening’s Bundesliga action.

FC Koln VS SV Werder Bremen Predictions

Full Time: 4 - 3

Over/Under Tip: Over 2.5
win

Both Team To Score Tip: YES
win

Reason For FC Koln VS SV Werder Bremen Betting Tips

Cologne have failed to register a win since their defeat at home to “Rheinderby” rivals Borussia Monchengladbach at the start of April. Last weekend’s 0-0 draw on the road to Borussia Dortmund was no doubt a solid result, but with just two points earned over their last four outings (D2 L2), Cologne have fallen behind Werder Bremen and Freiburg in the race for European qualification – the hosts stand three points behind visitors Werder Bremen (6th placed).

Werder Bremen found themselves on the cusp of the relegation zone after starting 2017 with four consecutive defeats – a record last seen at Werder in 1980 – but the North Germans have more than made amends as the year has gone on. Werder’s dominant 2-0 win at home to Hertha Berlin sees them now unbeaten in eleven in the Bundesliga (W9 D2) and their unbelievable turnaround puts them one point within the top six. In fact, Bremen stand behind Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich in the form table for the second half of the season!

Based on recent performances from the two sides, “draw or Werder Bremen” at 8/13 with bet365 seems a solid bet, but we feel there’s more value to be had backing “over 2.5 goals and both teams to score” at 10/11 for the following reasons: first and foremost, Cologne’s formidable home record (W7 D6 L2) and Bremen’s record on the road (W5 D5 L5) sees much better value in a draw (at 5/2) than either side to win. What is notable, however, is that both teams have scored in a massive 80% of Werder Bremen’s away matches, as well as 53% of Cologne’s home matches. Notably, “over 2.5 goals and both teams to score” has also landed in four of Bremen’s five most recent away outings (80%).

Goals at both ends shouldn’t be of concern given that both Cologne and Werder Bremen boast some of this season’s most dangerous forwards. Cologne’s Anthony Modeste has scored 23 goals so far this season, which not only represents a massive 55% of Cologne’s goals, but also makes him the Bundesliga’s 3rd top scorer. With four goals over his last four outings at the RheinEnergieArena, he’s a decent price to score anytime at 5/6 with bet365. Meanwhile, Bremen’s Max Kruse (14 goals in 20 appearances) has excelled since making his return from injury a few weeks back. He’s scored eight goals over his last six and offers better value at 6/4 to score anytime.

Regarding a correct score bet, both Cologne and Werder Bremen average above 1.5 goals scored per match at home and away respectively. With Cologne’s home advantage balancing off against Werder Bremen’s stronger overall form, we find top value in a 2-2 draw at 10/1 with bet365.

Head To Head

Werder Bremen drew 1-1 a home to Cologne when the two sides met earlier this season. Werder Bremen are unbeaten in five against Cologne (W1 D4).

FC Koln VS SV Werder Bremen Stats

Both teams have scored in 53% of Cologne's home matches and in 80% of Werder Bremen's away matches this season. Over 2.5 goals were scored in 73% of Werder Bremen's away matches. Bremen have drawn 2-2 in 20% of their matches on the road.

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